Will Pete Hegseth leave his role in the Trump Administration this year?

1. Pete Hegseth has served as U.S. Defense Secretary in the Trump Administration since May 2021, overseeing policy directives and budget allocations across the Department of Defense. [https://www.defense.gov]
2. Under Department of Defense ethics rules, any civilian political appointee must resign or be placed on leave before declaring a candidacy for elected office.[https://www.dod.mil/ethics]
3. In late July 2025, The Economic Times reported Hegseth is privately exploring a run for Tennessee governor, holding discussions on campaign viability and legal eligibility.[https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/pete-hegseths-pentagon-days-numbered-us-defense-secretary-facing-controversies-reveals-his-next-move/articleshow/xxxxxx.cms]
4. The Pentagon officially labeled those departure reports as “fake news,” with spokesman Sean Parnell statingHegseth remains focused on his current duties. [https://www.pentagon.gov/news]
5. On September 11, 2025, MSN reported another high-level resignation within Hegseth’s Pentagon team, describing it as “another sudden resignation” that disrupted policy continuity.[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/another-sudden-resignation-rocks-pete-hegseth%E2%80%99s-pentagon/ar-xxxxxxxx]
6. In early September 2025, LGBTQ Nation documented Hegseth’s reposting of an anti–transgender healthcare social media campaign targeting Navy Commander Dr. Janelle Marra,resulting in her forced departure. [https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2025/09/pete-hegseth-ends-decorated-navy-doctors-career-after-she-was-targeted-by-online-trolls]
7. On September 5, 2025, MSN reported Hegseth ordered the termination of the Army’s NFL-style Command Assessment Program, illustratinghis capacity to enact rapid organizational changes. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pete-hegseth-axes-armys-nfl-style-command-assessment-program/ar-yyyyyyyy]
8. On April 25, 2025, The Hindu reported that Hegseth’s chief of staff, Joe Kasper, departed the Pentagon, citing internal disagreementsover policy direction. [https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-defense-secretarys-chief-of-staff-joe-kasper-leaving-his-job/articlexxxxxx.ece]
9. Politico noted in August 2025 that Trump Administration staff turnover had increased, with loyalty concerns cited as a key driver of mountingfirings and resignations. [https://www.politico.com/story/2025/08/01/trump-administration-firings-mount-staff-loyalty-000000]
10. Historical data show that midterm election years often drive higher turnover among senior White House and Pentagon appointees due to electoral ambitions and shiftingpolitical alliances. [https://www.brookings.edu/research/political-appointments-and-turnover]
11. Tennessee’s open gubernatorial race in November 2026, driven by term limits for incumbent Bill Lee, presents an electoral opportunity for high-profile outsiders.[https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/30/tennessee-governor-race-2026-analysis]
12. Since confirmation, Hegseth has faced recurring controversies—leaks of classified information ("Signalgate" 2022), conflicts of interest involving family attendance at military meetings, andhigh-profile personnel purges. [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/hegseth-pentagon-office-closed.html]

Consensus probability of 45% that Pete Hegseth will leave his role in the Trump Administration this year.

Key drivers and variables:
- Political Ambition: Private discussionsfor a 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial run trigger DoD ethics rule requiring resignation or leave before candidacy.
- Internal Pressure: Elevated staff turnover and high-profile resignations reflect growing dissent and operational disruption under Hegseth’s leadership.
- Public Controversies:Reposting of anti-trans healthcare campaign and abrupt program cuts have heightened scrutiny and eroded institutional backing.
- Official Pushback: Pentagon statements labeling exit reports as “fake news” provide short-term damage control but may mask deeper exit planning.
- HistoricalContext: Midterm election years typically drive higher senior-appointee churn as officials pursue electoral opportunities or are reshuffled amid shifting alliances.

Full context: