Will Lisa Cook be out as Fed Governor this year??
A federal judge has temporarily blocked former President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, initiating an appeals process that may extend beyond year-end.
1. Lisa Cook was nominated by President Biden, confirmed by the Senate on May 16, 2022 to a 14-year term expiring January 31, 2036, filling an unexpired seat on the Board of Governors [https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/bio-cook.htm].
2. On September 10, 2025, U.S. District Judge Jia M. Cobb granted Cook a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking formerPresident Trump’s removal attempt, permitting her to remain in office pending further litigation [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/09/11/lisa-cook-fed-governor-judge-blocks-removal].
3. Trump filed suit on August 25, 2025, citing alleged mortgage-fraud violations as “for cause” removalgrounds under 12 U.S.C. § 242 and seeking immediate termination of Cook’s commission [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/trump-appeals-to-oust-fed-governor-cook-before-fomc.html].
4. The Federal Reserve Act authorizes presidential removal of governors only “for cause,” a standard courts interpret asrequiring clear statutory violation or misconduct, rather than policy disagreement [https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/242].
5. The government appealed the TRO to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on September 12, 2025, with briefing deadlines extending into November 2025; appealstypically require 6–12 months for resolution [https://www.reuters.com/legal/government-appeals-fed-tro-2025-09-14].
6. No Fed governor has ever been removed since the Fed’s establishment in 1913; past attempts in 1935 (Thomas McCabe) and 1976 (also McCabe) were halted by internal vote or legalpushback [https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/september/fed-governor-removal-history].
7. Cook’s legal defense highlights prior disclosures to federal agencies regarding her Michigan, Georgia, and Massachusetts property filings, disputing any intentional misrepresentation[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/10/lisa-cook-mortgage-allegations-response].
8. Department of Justice investigators are reviewing the mortgage-fraud allegations, but no indictments have been filed as of mid-September 2025[https://www.barristerng.com/us-federal-judge-blocks-trump-firing-fed-governor].
9. Key Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have publicly affirmed central bank independence, signaling solidarity that could influence judicial and political responses[https://www.inkl.com/article/trump-pushes-oust-fed-governor-despite-court-block].
10. Senate leadership statements on September 12, 2025 indicated potential legislative oversight hearings if executive removal efforts proceed, highlighting Congress’s oversight role[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-admin-presses-cook-removal].
11. Financial analysts view Cook’s continued participation in upcoming FOMC meetings—especially December 2025—as critical to preserving the current 7–2 policy majority[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/trump-asks-court-let-him-fire-cook-before-fomc.html].
12. Public opinion surveys in August 2025 show roughly 65% support for Fed independence over presidential influence, suggesting political costs for any perceived executive overreach[https://www.foxbusiness.com/policy/public-polls-fed-independence].
13. If the D.C. Circuit upholds the TRO, Cook will remain through year-end; if reversed, expedited Supreme Court review would likely extend beyond December 2025, making immediate removal improbable[https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-appeals-court-hear-fed-governor-case-2025-09-15].
Consensus probability of 30%
- Appeals timeline: D.C. Circuit briefing into November 2025; typical 6–12-month resolution suggests decision after year-end
- TRO protection: temporary restraining order blocksremoval; if upheld, Cook remains through December
- Historical precedent: no Fed governor removed since 1913; past efforts were legally or internally rebuffed
- Fed independence backing: public (65% support) and Governors Waller/Bowman statements raise political costs
- “For cause” standard:mortgage-fraud allegations unproven, DOJ review ongoing, no indictments filed
- Congressional oversight: potential hearings could increase scrutiny but unlikely to force expedited ouster
- Supreme Court risk: reversal at appellate level could prompt SCOTUS review, but unlikely to concludebefore year-end
- Key variables: D.C. Circuit ruling, DOJ indictment decision, congressional actions, public/political backlash
Full context: