Will there be a U.S. government shutdown this year?
A divided Congress and partisan budget standoff by the September 30 deadline raise significant risk of a U.S. government shutdown, though final-hour deals have historically averted one.
1. Since 1976, Congress has enacted 21 government shutdowns when appropriations expired without new funding, with most lasting under a week and the longest spanning 34 days in 2018–2019 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States].
2. The federal fiscal year ends on September 30, requiring Congress to pass 12appropriations bills or a continuing resolution by that date to fund all federal agencies [https://www.usa.gov/fiscal-year].
3. The 119th Congress is divided: Republicans control the House with a slim majority, while Democrats hold the Senate, a configuration historically associated with increasedrisk of deadlock in budget negotiations [https://www.politico.com/2025/09/08/congress-splinters-unlikely-factions-looming-government-shutdown-000000].
4. In fiscal years 2023 and 2024, Congress repeatedly used short-term continuing resolutions to extend funding past the deadline, avoidingshutdowns through last-minute bipartisan agreements [https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/how-would-a-government-shutdown-affect-you].
5. The House GOP budget proposal includes substantial cuts to domestic programs—such as older worker job assistance and state grants—that Democrats arguewould harm vulnerable populations [https://thehill.com/policy/finance/490318-democrats-dig-in-against-gop-budget-strategy].
6. Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have publicly opposed proposed cuts and indicated willingness to vote for a stopgap measure to keep the governmentopen, but Democratic unity on the Senate floor remains uncertain [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/shutdown.html].
7. The White House published an "anomalies list" of desired policy changes to accompany stopgap funding discussions and has urged Republican support for a continuingresolution that would temporarily increase presidential reprogramming authority [https://www.rollcall.com/2025/09/09/white-house-anomalies-list-kick-starts-stopgap-funding-talks].
8. With the 2024 presidential election cycle underway, both parties face heightened political incentives: Republicansmay use a shutdown threat to demonstrate fiscal discipline, while Democrats may seek to portray GOP cuts as harmful ahead of key battleground state primaries [https://www.cbsnews.com/2025-03-14/us-government-shutdown-minnesotans/].
9. A shutdown would furlough approximately 800,000 nonessentialfederal employees and suspend services such as national park operations and routine food safety inspections; essential functions like Social Security and Medicare payments would continue [https://www.securityclearancejobs.com/2025/07/23/federal-furloughs-military-delays].
10. Following the 35-dayshutdown in December 2018–January 2019, Congress has shown a preference for avoiding extended funding gaps, often resolving impasses in the final days before deadlines [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States].
11. State executives in Virginia and other affectedlocales have warned that proposed federal cuts could translate into hundreds of millions in state budget shortfalls, creating additional pressure on their congressional delegations to avert a shutdown [https://www.vadogwood.com/2025/09/11/trump-cuts-cost-virginia-hundreds-millions].
Consensusprobability of 42%
- Divided Congress: slim GOP House majority vs Democratic Senate raises budget‐negotiation impasse risk
- Historical patterns: 21 shutdowns since 1976 (most <7 days; 2018–19 lasted 35 days), with strong precedent for last-minute resolutions
- Funding deadline: federalfiscal year ends September 30; requires passage of 12 appropriations bills or a continuing resolution (CR)
- Partisan budget proposals: House GOP seeks deep cuts to domestic programs, opposed by Senate Democrats
- White House “anomalies list”: potential policy riders and expanded reprogrammingauthority complicate CR negotiations
- Political incentives: 2024 presidential cycle pressures both parties to signal fiscal discipline or demonize opposing cuts
- State‐level pressure: governors warn of significant budget shortfalls if federal funding lapses, adding local lobbying urgency
-Key drivers: level of partisan unity in each chamber; inclusion of policy riders; public‐opinion or economic shocks; election‐year dynamics
- Operational view: high risk of a short‐term funding lapse, but strong incentives for a last-minute CR make an extended shutdown less likely
Full context: