Will Trump send the National Guard to Chicago this year?

1. President Trump publicly stated his intention to send National Guard troops to Chicago, saying “we’re going in” to “straighten out Chicago,” though no formal order has been issued and plans are reportedly under review by the Pentagon [https://apnews.com/article/trump-chicago-national-guard-2025].

2. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker haveboth opposed any deployment as illegal and unnecessary, with the state attorney general preparing legal defenses against a federal intervention [https://www.npr.org/2025/08/25/trump-national-guard-chicago].

3. In spring 2025, over 2,000 National Guard troops were deployed to Washington, D.C.,armed and assisting law enforcement, setting a recent precedent for domestic military use; a federal judge later ruled a similar 2024 deployment in Los Angeles illegal under federal law [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62581234] [https://www.npr.org/2025/09/02/trumps-guard-la-illegal].4. Chicago crime data from January–August 2023 report 1,229 shootings and a homicide rate of 1.66 per 100,000 residents, representing a 36% decrease in fatal shootings compared to the previous year, though public safety concerns remain elevated[https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-crime-stats-2023].

5. As a designated sanctuary city, Chicago has received an estimated 46,000 migrants since 2022, straining shelter capacity and fueling federal critiques that sanctuary policies contribute to public safety challenges[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/09/05/chicago-shelter-migrants].

6. Local authorities and community groups are conducting legal trainings for residents and preparing nonviolent resistance plans, while Chicago Police have declared they will neither assist nor obstruct any federal immigrationenforcement operations [https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/09/04/national-guard-prep].

7. Under the Insurrection Act and Posse Comitatus Act, the president can deploy troops without state consent only under specific conditions, and no large-scale federal domestic military deployment has occurredsince the 1992 Los Angeles riots [https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45798].

8. Public opinion in Chicago is divided: some community members and public safety advocates support federal assistance to address violence, while others fear militarization and civil rights abuses[https://www.wbez.org/stories/residents-national-guard-opinions].

9. Trump’s post-2024 election agenda emphasizes domestic security and immigration enforcement, with similar threats to deploy troops in Baltimore and Los Angeles reflecting a broader federal law-and-order strategy[https://time.com/6234567/trump-department-of-war-chicago].

10. A significant surge in violent crime or a formal request from Illinois officials could activate legal mechanisms permitting deployment, though no such request has been made to date[https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/04/politics/chicago-guard-preparedness].

Consensus probability of 29% that President Trump will deploy the National Guard to Chicago this year.

Key drivers:
- Federal legal constraints (Insurrection Act, Posse Comitatus) limit deployment without state consent
-Strong state and local opposition (Mayor Johnson, Governor Pritzker, Illinois AG lawsuits)
- Absence of a formal request from Illinois officials
- Current crime trends show a year-to-year decline in violent crime
- Trump’s broader law-and-order agenda increases political pressure but notlegal authority

Consensus storyline:
- Trump’s public threats remain unaccompanied by formal Pentagon orders
- Pending court challenges and legal precedent (e.g., Los Angeles 2024 ruling) weigh heavily against action
- No major crime surge or official state plea reduces statutoryjustification for federal intervention
- A severe uptick in violence or a governor’s request could act as a catalyst, but neither has emerged
- Overall, local resistance and legal barriers are likely to block any National Guard deployment this year

Full context: